Nate Silver Election Forecast Shows Trump’s Lead Growing Ahead of Debate

Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election in November are increasing ahead of the first debate between the candidates, according to pollster Nate Silver.
Silver’s forecast last week marked Trump’s highest chance of winning since the end of July, with the former president holding a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, had a 39.7 percent chance.
Since then, Trump’s chances of victory have increased, according to the forecast, which shows Trump with a 64.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 35.3 percent. It also indicates that Harris’ chance of winning the popular vote has decreased from 58 percent to 56 percent, while she is projected to win 256 electoral votes to Trump’s 282.
Meanwhile, the model shows that the Republicans have made a net gain of between 0.3 and 1.2 points in every swing state in the past week, with the former president now predicted to secure a victory in all seven of the battleground states. Last week, the model showed Harris and Trump would be tied in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
The forecast comes ahead of the first debate between the two candidates, which is due to take place tonight in Philadelphia at 9 p.m. ET.
Political scientists and analysts have claimed that the debate could be “make or break” for Harris, who has been ahead in the polls since she became the candidate, after the first debate between Biden and Trump led to the 81-year-old president ending his re-election campaign.
“This is kind of a make-or-break moment for both candidates,” Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at Fresno State, told KSEE. “Harris really needs to present herself well and Trump needs to try to stop her from presenting herself well.”
Although Harris has had a strong showing in the polls, a recent national poll, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College between September 3 and 6, gave the former president a one-point lead over Harris among likely voters ahead of the debate.
It is the first major poll to show a drop in support for Harris, which the New York Times speculated may represent the end of a honeymoon period and a “euphoric August” for the vice president.
“The honeymoon is officially over,” Trump spokesperson Jason Miller told Politico after the poll was published.
Meanwhile, analysts have warned that the new poll is an outlier so far and that it is too early to tell if Harris’ lead has been overtaken.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker still shows Harris ahead nationally, on 47.2 points to Trump’s 44.4 points, with FiveThirtyEight’s forecast showing she is projected to win 277 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 261. That is down from August 28, when the forecast showed Harris on 291 votes to Trump’s 247.
RealClearPolitics’ forecast shows that while Harris is leading according to polling averages, Trump is winning the Electoral College when toss up states are removed, with the vice president on 257 votes to Trump’s 281.
Last week, RealClearPolitics put Harris ahead in the Electoral College when tossup states were removed.
Both pollsters show that Harris is predicted to win in three swing states – Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada- while Trump is predicted to win in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
The only swing states where the two pollsters differ is Pennsylvania, with Trump predicted to win the state by RealClearPolitics, while the latest FiveThirtyEight forecast shows the two candidates will tie in the state.